IJPAM: Volume 113, No. 4 (2017)

Title

INTEGRAL MODEL AND FORECASTING OF
VECTOR DYNAMIC SERIES OF ECONOMIC PARAMETERS

Authors

Mukhtarbay Otelbaev$^1$, Makhmud A. Sadybekov$^2$, Berik I. Tuleuov$^3$
$^{1,3}$Eurasian National University
Astana, KAZAKHSTAN
$^{1,2}$Institute of Mathematics and Mathematical Modeling
Almaty, KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

In the assumption of existence of forecasting transformation and under condition of its continuity we give a way (algorithm) of construction of this transformation. This transformation is applied to forecasting of economic processes which are defined by a large number of factors. The offered model of forecasting most considers mutual influence of change of all quantitative indices in big system in the reporting period on result of each parameter in the perspective period. Universality of model allows to make easily its further modification for use at the solution of a wide range of economic, production, marketing and financial tasks, everywhere, where the effective forecast allows to rationalize administrative decisions and to receive qualitative results in the future. Also, this method can easily be parallelized.

History

Received: December 15, 2016
Revised: January 30, 2017
Published: March 30, 2017

AMS Classification, Key Words

AMS Subject Classification: 62M10, 62M20, 90A20
Key Words and Phrases: forecasting, time series, ill-conditioned matrix, econometrics

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Bibliography

1
S.B. Bayzakov, B.M. Muhamediyev, A. Bayzakov, On the unity of theprinciples of constructing models of macroeconomic analysis andforecasting, In a book: Economists of the institute aboutcontemporary problems of development of Kazakhstan economy,Almaty, Institute of Economic Studies, (2001), 134-151.

How to Cite?

DOI: 10.12732/ijpam.v113i4.12 How to cite this paper?

Source: International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics
ISSN printed version: 1311-8080
ISSN on-line version: 1314-3395
Year: 2017
Volume: 113
Issue: 4
Pages: 125 - 138


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